Airlines show signs of recovery but challenges face MRO vendors
Thursday, December 10, 2009 at 01:41PM The troubled aviation industry is showing signs of recovery with the announcement that United Airlines has ordered 50 aircraft from Boeing and Airbus worth almost $10 billion, its first order for new aircraft in twelve years. The order is for twenty-five of Boeing's new mid-sized 787 Dreamliner jets, still in the testing stages, and twenty-five wide-bodied Airbus 350s. The Dreamliner's first flight could take place this month. Delivery is due in 2016.
This news comes as four of the US's biggest airlines—Southwest Airlines, United Airlines, Continental Airlines and Jet Blue Airway—report passenger number increases in November compared to November 2008. Global airline capacity rose in November as well, as are frequencies (up 1% over November 2008) with a total of 2.3 million flights for November 2009.
This is somewhat encouraging news for the MRO industry, which has had to adjust as airlines struggle with weak travel demands, rising fuel costs and tight money. In 2008, North American capacity fell by almost 800 aircraft, making it the largest capacity reduction on record. In that year, according to research by Frost & Sullivan, the North American MRO market, including heavy maintenance, engine maintenance, components maintenance and line maintenance earned $16.4 billion in revenues. Worldwide flight hours, have declined 3.8% this year, according to David Stewart of AeroStrategy, prompting a commensurate drop in MRO spend from $44 billion in 2008 to $41.8 billion in 2009.
As airlines continue to look for ways to cut costs and comply with environmental regulations that require greater fuel efficiency, MRO service providers will be expected to contribute cost-cutting solutions. At the same time, as the aviation industry becomes more and more technologically advanced, with next-generation aircraft like the Boeing 787 and the Airbus 350 replacing older fleets, MRO will have to keep pace with cutting edge electronics and advanced cockpit systems.
Besides the challenge of keeping up with technology and finding skilled workers, North American MRO vendors have to compete ore and more with lower-cost Asian and Latin American MROs. The unpredictability of fuel prices and the overall economic climate are two more challenges over which the industry has little control.
Yet another challenge for MRO vendors could be the trend among world airlines to cut into the MRO market by offering services to third parties. There are reports that airlines such as Lufthansa, Air India and Malaysian Airlines are moving into the Middle East. Lufthansa Technik, for example, has signed a contract with Qatar Airways to do cabin modification work on Airbus aircraft. Civil aviation in the Middle East is projected to grow more than 5.2 % compared to the international average of 3.9 % and the number of aircraft serving the region is expected to triple by 2028, increasing the demand for MRO services dramatically.
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