NA photovoltaic market set to double in Q4 2011: report

The North American photovoltaic (PV) market is at a crossroads, positioned to take significant market share from other energy sources, according to the conclusions of the recently released NPD Solarbuzz North America PV Markets Quarterly report. Falling prices and new incentive programs are generating increased demand, but policy, regulatory, and corporate risks still exist. Cmpanies are facing enormous challenges to adapt to rapidly changing channel structure and business models in order to successfully participate in that opportunity, said Craig Stevens, President of NPD Solarbuzz.

In the fourth quarter of 2011, the North America photovoltaic market is forecast to grow 33 per cent over the same quarter last year, and 101 per cent year over year. Installations of more than 0.8 GW of PV capacity are expected, resulting in a total demand of over 2.2 GW in 2011.

The United States will account for 84 per cent of North American demand in Q4 2011; Canada, dominated by Ontario, has the remaining 16 per cent. California remains the largest single market, with 21 per cent of market share. Ontario is forecast to become the second-largest region, followed by New Jersey (11 per cent).

The primary driver in Ontario has been the feed-in tariff (FIT), which stimulated approximately 16 MW of residential installations during this quarter. American states have been driven by a combination of policies and regulations at both state and federal levels. More recently, the US federal government has played a critical role in the US solar marketplace, providing investment tax credits (ITC), cash grants, depreciation bonuses and loan guarantees as vehicles to make PV more financeable. By the end of Q3 2011, the federal government cumulatively awarded over $1.4 billion in cash grants for solar systems, which is equivalent to 800 MW of installed capacity.

The Canadian market is continuing its growth in Q4 2011, and is projected to increase 35 per cent quarter over quarter, and 33 per cent year over year, as utility-scale projects continue development, most under Ontario’s previous incentive scheme. The province’s current feed-in tariff program will continue to be Canada’s primary driver of PV uptake.