New aircraft market worth $4 trillion over next 20 years: Boeing

Boeing 757: 70 per cent of world market will be for narrow-body (single-aisle) planes like this

In its Current Market Outlook report for 2011, Boeing foresees a new worldwide aircraft market worth $4 trillion over the next 20 years. The world market has recovered, according to Boeing, and is now expanding "at a significant rate." In spite of volatile fuel costs, political upheaval in the Middle East and government debt problems throughout the developed world, the report points to the "persistent resilience" of air travel and forecasts a 5.1 per cent annual increase in passenger traffic and a doubling of the world fleet by 2030, with 33,500 new passenger aircraft and cargo planes added.

Passenger air traffic rose 8 per cent in 2010, after declining about 2 per cent in 2009. The growth is expected to reach 6 per cent in 2011 and remain rate at or above the historical trend through the middle of the decade.

Single-aisle airplanes (maximum seating currently about 250 passengers) will account for the majority of deliveries over the next 20 years, with 70 per cent of the airplanes and 48 per cent of the value. This market segment is largely driven by emerging economies such as China. Most of the demand for new aircraft, 78 per cent, will come from outside North America, the report states.

Asia Pacific will represent the largest market by value, however, with more than $1.5 trillion in new orders expected.